You won't find a better grudge match, especially for a cup final. Look at it this way. Mamelodi Sundowns, the cup kings of South African football, win the MTN8 in 2021, and then all of a sudden Orlando Pirates knock them out of the same tournament the following year, in the semi-finals nogal, with a stinging 3-0 scoreline over two legs. Bruised, battered and embarrassed! The Chloorkop-based side may be downplaying it, but having dominated the local football scene for close on 10 years now, that result never sat well with them. It was like a Real Madrid being knocked out of the UEFA Champions League before even reaching the final. However, for the Buccaneers, it was a case of going on to win a trophy they had secured in 2020, one that the Brazilians have only ever won twice in the last 16 years. Will the MTN8 curse continue for Rhulani Mokwena's men once more on Saturday, or will Bucs stumble to a fifth defeat in all competitions? This Soccer Laduma preview is a must-read!
First final for many Downs players
After the semi-final victory over Kaizer Chiefs, Rhulani Mokwena was delighted to make his first cup final as a solo head coach. "I'm proud that they get to play a final. With a lot of the things we achieved last season, the one thing we did not give ourselves a chance to do was to play a cup final. That was one of the objectives this season," he said. It's not just Mokwena who will be playing in a first cup final as head coach. Many of the players in the squad are new to the club and have not had that experience yet. Mamelodi Sundowns' most recent cup final was the win against Marumo Gallants in the Nedbank Cup in May 2022. Guys like Ronwen Williams and Teboho Mokoena were not at the Chloorkop-based outfit yet, so this is their first final in the side's colours. Of course, five new players joined in the off-season and none have featured in a cup final in South Africa. Mothobi Mvala has also not stepped onto the pitch in a showpiece in Brazilians' colours having been an unused substitute in that win against Bahlabane Ba Ntwa.
Riveiro suddenly under pressure
Considering he finished second last season and won two domestic cups, it is a surprise to see some murmurs of discontent with Jose Riveiro. Orlando Pirates have been knocked out of the CAF Champions League on penalties – more on their curse later – and have seen defeats to both Sundowns and Stellenbosch FC in recent weeks without scoring a goal. A loss in this cup final could see question marks and dissenting voices get louder, whether that is fair or not. Meanwhile, a victory would suddenly mean three trophies won in under 12 months since taking over. Considering the Soweto giants had lifted only one trophy in eight years at the time of the Spaniard's appointment, to win three in a less than a year, after the club had won only four trophies in the decade from 2012 to 2022, would be a remarkable achievement. There is so much riding on this match – possibly legendary status for Riveiro or some fan pressure on his job! Such is the fickle nature of this industry.
Brazilians have Pirates' number!
Without doubt, the Chloorkop-based side have a huge advantage in the recent head-to-head record between these clubs. Since a league victory in January 2020 for Pirates over a Pitso Mosimane team, these teams have faced off eight times in the DStv Premiership without a single Bucs win. In fact, Sundowns have won their last seven league game both home and away against Ezikamagebhula. There was also a mauling in the Nedbank Cup as Peter Shalulile gave Thulani Hlatshwayo a torrid time. Overall, the last 10 meetings in both league and cup clashes have yielded eight victories for the league's defending champions. The exception was the famous 3-0 MTN8 semi-final second leg triumph in October 2022, the game which is now known for being the breakout performance of Monnapule Saleng, with two goals and an assist on the day.
That encounter will give Bucs some semblance of hope for this final. The blueprint on that afternoon at Peter Mokaba Stadium was Kermit Erasmus as the number nine and going with three in central midfield, one number six in Miguel Timm and two number eights in Fortune Makaringe and Ndabayithethwa Ndlondlo. Once leading 1-0, Riveiro hooked the latter two for destructive replacements in Ben Motshwari and Goodman Mosele to clog up the midfield. Maybe it would be worth reprising that game plan on Saturday! Another semblance of hope could be the narrow league defeat in February. Although Downs scored early through Cassius Mailula, Pirates gave a very strong performance. Riveiro even went as far to say, "We made a mistake in one of our build-ups and they really punished us in the first mistake. But I think after that, the game was absolutely dominated by Orlando Pirates in every scenario." The match stats back that up in some ways. The Houghton-based outfit had 58% of the ball and outshot Sundowns 11-6. They also made 148 passes in the opposition half to just 83 for Mokwena's side. The problem was that for all the pressure, Bucs only had one shot on target.
Who would replace doubtful Ribeiro?
One major worry for the 'visiting side' in this match is over Brazilian forward Lucas Ribeiro Costa. He went off injured in the first half of the win against Bumamuru on Saturday and will be a question mark ahead of this big one. Considering the former SK Beveren man has seven goals and three assists in just 800-odd minutes of football, his absence would be a massive blow. It could mean that Thapelo Morena is given a start as Shalulile's partner despite his lack of recent minutes. The speed merchant entered after 10 minutes against Bumamuru and lasted 57 minutes on the pitch before being taken off for Junior Mendieta. Mokwena was quizzed on the injury to Ribeiro, saying, "He's under assessment, and we'll see. But I don't think it's that serious." Aside from Morena, the only other options would be Thapelo Maseko as a split striker or as a winger with the fullback on the other flank providing some amount of symmetry. Mendieta could also play behind Shalulile or as the number 10 with Themba Zwane as a false nine and the Namibian as a wide forward, a regular strategy from Mokwena in some big fixtures.
Bucs need some ref calls
If we look at the league meeting between these sides on 20 September, there were a number of contentious refereeing decisions. Downs received a penalty early in the match and former FIFA referee Ace Ncobo told SuperSport TV that the referee got that decision correct: "Law 12, tripping or attempting to trip an opponent. There is tripping. It's one of those infringements where we don't even look for intention. There is no referee's opinion involved, we just look at whether or not the player is tripped and when a player is tripped like that inside the penalty area, then the referee is left with no option." However, there were some other big calls in the encounter. Just before halftime, Zakhele Lepasa ran onto a long ball and reached it before Williams. The goalkeeper made contact with the striker and was eventually handed just a yellow card. Ncobo felt that was worth of a dismissal, commenting, "Had he not been fouled, he would have had an obvious opportunity to score a goal. Yellow is not the correct colour of card there because he was denied an obvious goalscoring opportunity. It should have been a red. There is an infringement by the goalkeeper and that infringement takes away the obvious goalscoring opportunity. That's where the red card should come in."
Of course, there is a subjective element to determine whether it was a clear goalscoring chance or not. Lepasa's touch was heavy and sent him towards the corner flag. To score from such an angle would have taken something incredible, so there is really no guarantee that he would have been presented with a scoring chance had Williams not cut him down. For Pirates to win this final, they are going to need a slice of fortune in the officiating that they lacked in their most recent meeting against Masandawana.
Durban Duels That Will Be Key
Can Sibisi shut out Sha-Sha?
This is set to be a brilliant physical tussle. Both players are very fast nimble across the ground. The hard-running marksman didn't play any minutes against Bumamuru, meaning he will have a full 10 days to rest and recover since the Stellies victory. Sibisi himself missed the MTN8 second leg loss to the Winelands outfit, but he returned for the 1-0 win against Jwaneng Galaxy last weekend. It's three matches since Shalulile scored against Pirates, having netted three goals and assisted two more in the two league fixtures in the 2021/22 season. In an MTN8 semi-final first leg and two league matches
since, he hasn't managed to find the net. In fact, he was substituted after 65 and then 58 minutes in his last two outings against the Sea Robbers with Sibisi and partner Tapelo Xoki doing a strong job of marking him. They need to be at their best against a 'well rested' 'Sha-Sha' in the cup final.
Will Mvala vula for Lepasa?
The Soweto giants' number nine made a remarkable start to this season. He scored for Bafana Bafana against Morocco in an Afcon qualifying win and after a blank against Stellenbosch, he put two goals past Royal AM and three past Sekhukhune United. After failing to score against Chippa United, he netted in his next four matches: once away to Djabal Club and twice at home to the Comorian minnows, before scoring once against both Cape Town City and Stellies. Since that ridiculous streak of 10 goals in eight appearances, he has gone three club outings without finding the net. In the defeat to the Brazilians, he only managed one shot and 10 successful passes in a quiet outing. He will once again face the mountain that is Mothobi Mvala. The 29-year-old's maturation into a central defender has been a Mokwena masterstroke. Since the beginning of last season, Mvala has played 2,023 DStv Premiership minutes with just five goals conceded. His last 19 league starts have yielded 15 clean sheets. Yet, in the cup competitions he made errors against Wydad Casablanca (an own goal) and Stellies (a wayward pass) which led to goals and cup exits. This is his time to redeem himself, especially because he was on the losing side in the 2019 MTN8 final against SuperSport United in Highlands Park's colours.
Tito v Tebza, who'll run the show?
In most big-game previews this season, Patrick Maswanganyi has been highlighted as a key player to be stopped. Stellenbosch didn't manage to do it in the first leg of the semi-final as the playmaker assisted two goals by moving wide away from the attentions of Sibongiseni Mthethwa. When Bucs faced Downs a couple of weeks ago, the recent signing from Matsatsantsa was completely shackled. On that evening, he had no shots, only assisted one shot for a teammate and lost 10 of his 13 duels. A big reason for that quiet performance was the aggressive pressing of Teboho Mokoena onto Maswanganyi. The latter was playing a little deeper, more as a left-sided number eight than as a pure 10, but Mokoena (and also Sipho Mbule) were all over him like a rash, aggressively pressing and occasionally fouling the chief creator in the Pirates ranks. It is likely to be the same story in Durban with Mokwena knowing the player through his involvement with Black Poison FC, saying, "I've seen Maswanganyi play, I've seen him play free and I know what he can do." Riveiro should be thinking of ways to move his jersey number 28 into wide areas away from the clutches of "Tebza".
'Mkhuthuzi' to pickpocket 'My Friend'?
One of Sundowns' biggest strengths is their 'rest defence'. In other words, their defensive structure when they are on the attack to ensure teams can't counter-attack with ease. A key man in that is Abdelmounaim Boutouil. He has been playing as a narrow left back all season, being ultra aggressive in stepping up to make interceptions and in guarding the left half-space. As a result, he has picked up five yellow cards in 688 minutes of football this term, a caution every 138 minutes on the pitch. Despite his reading of the game and his aggression, speed is not one of his strengths. Pirates should have a pace mismatch down that flank with Saleng expected to be recalled. The 25-year-old has been a bit disappointing this term, both in terms of his goals drying up and his overall performance levels. If he can be back to his direct, aggressive best, cutting inside to fire off shots and coming into prime central areas to attack crosses, then he could be the potential match winner in this encounter. We know he scored in the MTN8 final last year, netted twice in the semis against the Brazilians and he also scored the winner in the Nedbank Cup final. He certainly has BMT (Big Match Temperament) and let's hope we see him in the starting XI and in his best role as right winger. If he can get Boutouil booked early, the Moroccan won't be able to defend as physically or with his usual aggression.
Bucs must avoid penalties hoodoo
Before any major cup match, we always have to remind readers about the Soweto giants' awful record in penalty shootouts. That is even more the case after the CAF Champions League loss to Galaxy on spot kicks on Friday. Youngster Relebohile Mofokeng missed the side's fourth penalty of the evening, which has drawn widespread criticism as the teenager stepped forward ahead of some experienced heads. Riveiro also took a big risk (granted, for a high reward) by hooking Sipho Chaine for the more physically imposing Richard Ofori, who didn't manage to save any penalties. In the block on the right is the awful record that Pirates have in recent shootouts, all the more reason they need to avoid them in Durban.
Stop the press!
For Pirates, much of their success in this match will be about not being pressed into submission by Sundowns. This will be a fresh Masandawana side who have had at least two or three full tactical training sessions ahead of the final. In the clash on 20 September, the Chloorkop-based side reverted to a midfield diamond and pressed (and counter-pressed – i.e. closing down immediately after your own possession loss) like mad men. Mokoena, Mbule, Marcelo Allende and the front pairing swarmed all over Pirates, forcing mistakes, breaking up play and not allowing very many final third entries, especially in transition moments. Riveiro hailed the work without the ball of his side's opponents, saying, "What I know, what I can tell you is that Sundowns is exceptionally good in pressing as well. We used to think about Sundowns as a team that is good on the ball and it's true, but they are also good when it's time to defend." We also know that the Buccaneers made a mistake in their build-up in the league loss to Sundowns last season for the only goal. In the league defeat last month, it was Mbule's pressing that won the ball high up, he released Ribeiro and Zwane was found in the box to win a penalty from Siphelo Baloni's foul. It may not look as pretty, but maybe the Sea Robbers should be a little more direct on Saturday when their defenders and goalkeeper have the ball.
Sundowns are big favourites
There are so many subplots and tactical questions for this match. We didn't even touch too much on Sundowns' tactical fouling in recent big matches. They gave away 23 freekicks and seven yellow cards in the last meeting with Pirates and won't allow them to counter-attack easily, even if it means chopping down their opponents. We have a chance for the Spaniard to write his name into Bucs folklore, whilst Mokwena is looking to win his first trophy as a lone head coach. A defeat for him and a few Masandawana fans may have concerns over their cup record since he took full charge. This match really feels like it could be dictated by the first goal. If Pirates get it, they can sit back and force Sundowns to open up. If Mokwena's side get it, it won't be easy for the men in Black and White to come back. After all, they only had one shot on target at Orlando Stadium last month and only one in the league match in February. Many players will want to make themselves the hero and we're not even sure if Saleng will start after being bafflingly an unused sub against Galaxy. Will Maseko be trusted in such a big game or will Downs go with their more refined and experienced players from the start and start him from the bench? A truly fascinating, physical, emotional cup final awaits us in KwaZulu- Natal. Wafa Wafa!
