On Wednesday, Groups C and D reach their climax with four matches in two time slots. For the Big Match Predictor, we look at the key stats, what every side needs to progress in first or second place and look at the form of the key players!
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Group D: Tunisia vs France (30/11, 5pm SAST)
Tunisia:
- The North Africans are placed 30th in the FIFA World Rankings. Their recent results are mixed: WWLDL.
- Tunisia lost 1-0 to Australia on Saturday to put them in a tough position to qualify. They had 14 shots against the Socceroos but six of those were blocked, and they only put up 0.94 expected goals.
- Key player and captain Youssef Msakni created two chances against Australia. He also attempted six shots, with two of those drawing saves from the goalkeeper.
- A draw or defeat would see Tunisia eliminated from the World Cup. A victory – they've only won once in 14 World Cup matches – is enough if Denmark also win but with a worse goal difference. Otherwise, if Denmark vs Australia ends in a draw and Tunisia score two goals in a victory.
France:
- The defending world champions sit 4th in the FIFA World Rankings. Their last five results have been as follows: LWDWW.
- Les Bleus beat Denmark 2-1 in their last match to ensure qualification to the round of 16. They dominated the match with 21 shots, four "big chances" created and 2.42 expected goals produced.
- Paris Saint-Germain star Kylian Mbappe netted a brace for France in Saturday's win. He has netted 14 goals in his last 12 matches for Les Bleus, and has scored in three successive World Cup matches.
- France have won eight of their last nine matches at the World Cup. A draw would guarantee top spot, but even a narrow defeat should be enough to finish first.
Predicted Result: France WIN. The French could rotate their side but they should still win as Tunisia don't carry much goal threat.
Recommended Scoreline Options: 2-0 or 3-0
Group D: Australia vs Denmark (30/11, 5pm SAST)
Australia:
- The Socceroos got a big win in their last match, meaning their form over five matches reads: DWWLW. They sit 38th in the latest FIFA World Rankings.
- Australia beat Tunisia 1-0 on Saturday as Michell Duke's header proved the difference. They had just nine shots in the match and 0.14 expected goals in the second half as they defended their lead.
- The Aussies kept a first clean sheet at the World Cup since 1974 against Tunisia. Stoke City defender Harry Souttar blocked three shots and made six clearances in a fine performance at the back.
- A draw is enough for Australia to progress in second spot as long as Tunisia don't beat France. The last three World Cups have seen Australia eliminated at the group stage.
Denmark:
- Denmark have lost three of their past six matches and are winless in five at the World Cup. The world's 10th-ranked side have the following results in their last five: WLWDL.
- The Danes have scored just once so far at this tournament, from a set-piece in their 2-1 loss to France. They have produced 2.24 expected goals across two matches in total, but only 0.64 xG of that is from open play.
- Christian Eriksen is the man who makes Denmark tick. He had 83 touches and 10 passes into the final third against France and created two chances.
- To progress, Denmark need to beat Australia while also hoping that Tunisia fail to beat France. If Tunisia do beat France, then Denmark need to have a better goal difference (or even goals scored total) to progress.
Predicted Result: Denmark WIN. The Danes are ranked 28 places higher than Australia and should eke out a victory to progress.
Recommended Scoreline Options: 2-1 or 2-0.
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Group C: Poland vs Argentina (30/11, 9pm, SAST)
Poland:
- Poland are placed 26th in the FIFA World Rankings. Their form over the last five matches read: LWWDW.
- The Poles beat Saudi Arabia 2-0 in their last match. They only had nine shots in the match but produced five "big chances" from 36% possession.
- Robert Lewandowski scored his first World Cup goal against Saudi Arabia in his fifth match at the tournament. He scored with his 15th shot at World Cups.
- Poland are aiming to reach the last 16 for the first time in four attempts. They have kept three clean sheets in a row at the tournament for the first time since 1978.
Argentina:
- Lionel Scaloni's side are the third-highest ranked side in the world, according to FIFA. They have lost just once in 35 matches, with their last five reading: WWWLW.
- Argentina beat Mexico 2-0 in their last match. They managed to score from both their shots on target in a very tight game, in which they produced just 0.32 expected goals.
- Lionel Messi has scored in each of his last six matches for Argentina. He is up to eight goals at FIFA World Cups, level with Diego Maradona.
- La Albiceleste have lost four of their last seven matches at World Cups. A defeat to Poland would see them eliminated from the competition, but they will progress with a draw if Saudi Arabia and Mexico also draw.
Predicted Result: Argentina WIN. Poland haven't been overly impressive in this tournament and Messi should inspire another victory.
Recommended Scoreline Options: 2-0 or 1-0.
Group C: Saudi Arabia vs Mexico (30/11, 9pm SAST)
Saudi Arabia:
- Saudi Arabia are placed 51st in the most recent FIFA World Rankings. Their last five results read: WDLWL.
- The Saudis beat Argentina 2-1 in their opening match with just three shots and 31% possession. They lost 2-0 to Poland on Saturday with a missed penalty, 64% possession and 16 shots attempted.
- Herve Renard's side need to better Argentina's result against Poland in the other match to qualify. If Argentina-Poland ends in a draw, Saudi Arabia would top the group if they beat Mexico.
- Saudi Arabia's last four World Cups have seen them eliminated at the group stage. They've won two of their last three World Cup matches, 2-1 vs Egypt (2018) and 2-1 vs Argentina (2022).
Mexico:
- Mexico's last five results have seen three losses: LWLDL. They are the 13th-highest-ranked side in the world according to FIFA and can still qualify for the knockout stage.
- The Mexicans lost 2-0 to Argentina on Saturday after two second-half goals conceded. They managed just four shots in the fixture, with 0.23 of their 0.27 expected goals count coming from set-piece situations.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers striker Raul Jimenez has twice appeared as a substitute at this tournament. In 43 minutes of action, he has managed no shots at goal and just 27 touches.
- Mexico have lost three of their last four World Cup matches with no goals scored. They need to win this match and hope that Poland beat Argentina in the other fixture.
Predicted Result: DRAW. Both sides know they can qualify but this could end in a draw.
Recommended Scoreline Options: 1-1 or 2-2.
