Kaizer Chiefs sit fourth in the PSL, just two points off SuperSport United in second place. They have a great chance of qualifying for the CAF Champions League or at least the Confederation Cup for the 2023/24 season. After a three-match losing streak, they've now been beaten just once in eight fixtures. Prior to that run of defeats, the Soweto giants had a run of one loss in 12 matches in all competitions. Adding to that, it's four wins on the bounce, something not achieved for a full six years, amazingly! What are the reasons for the improvement in results and is a two-week hiatus going to cool the head of steam the Glamour Boys have been building? Soccer Laduma investigates…
Four victories on the trot!
Since the shock 2-1 loss at home to Golden Arrows – a side that came into that encounter with four away losses in their previous five – Kaizer Chiefs have truly bounced back as four successive victories have been forthcoming. A 1-0 win against archrivals Orlando Pirates in the Soweto Derby preceded a 1-0 victory at Richards Bay FC. The side added to that by beating lower league opponents in Casric Stars, in the Nedbank Cup, before a 3-2 win at Maritzburg United last Saturday night. Much has been made of this being the first four-match winning streak since Steve Komphela was in charge and factually that is correct. The last time it was done was in April 2017 as the Kroonstad-born mentor oversaw four victories that also including beating opponents from below the top tier in Acornbush United. More impressive perhaps is that Komphela's winning streak came in a run of 14 unbeaten matches with 11 wins, which included a five-game PSL winning charge! After that April '17 winning streak, Amakhosi were tied-top of the PSL standings with Cape Town City after playing 24 matches. However, they crumbled in their final six games with just five points accrued as Bidvest Wits won the title. If we look at Arthur Zwane, he is on three league wins in a row for the second time this season. The Soweto giants haven't won four successive DStv Premiership fixtures since 2019 when Ernst Middendorp oversaw eight league wins in a row in a golden run of form that saw 21 goals scored.
Stats v Pirates, Richards Bay, Casric Stars
We can take a look at the Glamour Boys' numbers for the first three wins in the streak, as the data for the win against Maritzburg was not yet available at the time of writing:
Matches 3
Wins 3
Goals Scored 3
Not Penalty Goals Scored (excl. own goals) 3
Shots on Goal 42
Expected Goals 4.89
Opposition Expected Goals 1.71
Minutes Played v 10 Men 101
The first thing that we have to consider is that the Naturena-based outfit played 101 of 270 minutes in those first three fixtures with a one-man advantage (37% of the minutes). Then, 90 minutes were against a team in their first season in the Motsepe Foundation Championship. Lastly, the goal against the Buccaneers wasn't scored by a Chiefs player and didn't stem from a shot by Zwane's side but instead a long diagonal from the back by Edmilson Dove. What we can say is that Amakhosi created 4.89 Expected Goals, a measure of how many goals a team should score based on the locations and quality of their shots, and they only netted three times from those strikes, a set-piece against Richards Bay and twice against Casric Stars. In reality, the margin of victory against the Natal Rich Boyz should have been a couple of goals bigger.
'Ten Men FC!'
A strange quirk of Chiefs' season is how many red cards they've benefitted from. They have had one red of their own – Yusuf Maart in the 31st minute against Richards Bay in August – but the Soweto giants played brilliantly with a man less and then took a 1-0 victory that day. They have seen eight different teams have a man sent off against them this season: Marumo Gallants, AmaZulu FC, Stellenbosch FC, Arrows, TS Galaxy, Maritzburg, Pirates and Richards Bay earlier this month. Without trying to dissect every decision and whether referees got the call right, what is not in doubt is that it has lent a helping hand to the Glamour Boys to play against 10 men so often. They have taken a lot of points once teams have seen a player ejected. That sort of fortune has continued during this winning streak. Against Pirates, they needed an 89th-minute own goal to grab the three points. To be fair, Bucs were down to 10 men because of Christian Saile's run into a clear goalscoring position – you can certainly say that Chiefs provoked that dismissal with good attacking play. Against Richards Bay, they played over 70 minutes against 10 men after Salim Magoola was red-carded. The September/October PSL Player of the Month was a big loss in goal, but again, Amakhosi provoked him into an error with a ball over the top into space for Keagan Dolly. Besides, the Soweto giants were already leading at the time of that dismissal and the Natal Rich Boys have lost eight of their nine matches when going 1-0 down this season. There's a trend building perhaps. Against Maritzburg last weekend, the opening goal came from a goalkeeping howler as a ball over the top for Du Preez caused panic. The match was won through a controversial penalty, which infuriated the opposition coach, Fadlu Davids, who subtly suggested in his post-match interview that the referee may have been "a supporter". It was perhaps a harsh decision, but there was contact on the former Stellenbosch FC man as he drew a slight tug from the under-pressure defender.
Key Factors In The Winning Streak
1. Du Preez justifying his price tag
After the feature in the last edition of Soccer Laduma highlighting the improving form of Chiefs' R10 million man, there was further confirmation against Maritzburg. One assist and a penalty won were huge contributions from the lightning-fast forward. During this improved run, no one has had a bigger impact. He was a constant thorn in the side of Pirates, netted the winner against Casric Stars and was arguably the key tactical piece against the Team of Choice. His improved form has also helped Keagan Dolly, who got an assist for Du Preez in the Nedbank Cup before the favour was returned against Maritzburg.
2. Saile Assassin: Smart scouting highlighted
Without doubt, Christian Saile Basomboli has added a new dimension to Amakhosi's play since he joined. Whilst his impact has been obvious in some ways during the winning run – drawing Innocent Maela's red card and scoring last Saturday – his presence has changed the balance of the side's front three. He can run in-behind, he can cut inside from the right and he can play as a mobile number nine too. His ability to come short has allowed Du Preez to spend more time charging into space where he can do the most damage. Considering he has no caps for DR Congo and less than a full season playing in Zambia's topflight, it was smart recruitment to find him and he acclimatised quickly having had a trial at Naturena before joining.
3. Sithebe improves balance
Another factor has been the side's midfield balance being a bit better than around the turn of the year. Njabulo Blom's loss was initially filled by Samkelo Zwane, but it was a big ask for him to go from a DStv Diski Challenge player to being a starter at the country's most-supported club. Siyethemba Sithebe's recall after a spell in the wilderness has added energy and physicality to the engine room. The Soweto giants have also been somewhat forced into a 4-2-3-1 shape and it has looked well-balanced in recent weeks. That wasn't always the case as we saw Dolly in the midfield three at times, Yusuf Maart moving from a deep role to being a number eight (and back again) and guys like Sithebe and George Matlou not quite nailing down a more advanced role. Simplifying things with a passer and a runner duo in the double pivot has allowed the front four to express themselves.
FIFA break to affect momentum?
Now that Zwane's charges are on a winning streak and in the mix for CAF Champions League qualification, the FIFA break comes at an unwelcome time. Once the international break is over, the Naturena-based outfit host a Stellenbosch FC team in simply outstanding form (although Stellies will also be unhappy with the timing of this hiatus). After that, there's a home game against Marumo Gallants, a side that arguably could have beaten Chiefs earlier this season before a red card for Olivier Toure saw Amakhosi come back into the game and equalise through Zitha Kwinika with six minutes to go. As Mangethe said after the win at Harry Gwala Stadium, "My worry is that we are starting to gain momentum and we are going to lose this momentum because we're going to be inactive for two weeks." The mentor will be hoping that he doesn't suffer any injuries and for that reason, he may be secretly pleased that none of his players have been called up by Hugo Broos. However, Edmilson Dove is in Mozambique's squad for a double header against Senegal in 2023 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers. Bonfils-Caleb Bimenyimana is also in Burundi's squad to face Kenya and Indonesia during the break. The head coach will be praying that neither picks up an injury, especially with a massive Nedbank Cup quarterfinal match against Royal AM in mid-April coming up.
Progress, sure, but work to do!
There is certainly progress at the Glamour Boys. "10111" has dealt well with injuries at right back, has a clearer pecking order in all departments than earlier in the season, isn't chopping and changing in goal and has a much more threatening, well-rounded attack. Mduduzi Shabalala is excelling as a pure number 10, whilst Saile, Du Preez and Dolly interchange positions and duties around that. The dip in form from Bimenyimana has seen him left out and teams haven't actually enjoyed facing Chiefs without a clear focal point to defend against. There is still much work to do. All four of their wins have come by one-goal margins and they could have drawn with 10-man Pirates and with Maritzburg on another day. Having said that, they have been putting up some good Expected Goals numbers for a while: 2.10 xG in the 4-0 loss to AmaZulu FC, 2.10 xG vs Royal AM, 3.10 xG in the cup win against the Team of Choice and 2.20 xG against Richards Bay. The first task now for the mentor is to take the winning spurt to four DStv Premiership matches, something not achieved by the club in four years. Komphela won five matches in a row across all competitions but never six on the bounce, so there are targets to aim for, besides ending the trophy drought and qualifying for continental action.
