As we have reached the 10-game mark for Kaizer Chiefs in the current DSTV Premiership campaign, it's time to take a look at how the attack is functioning. After all, Amakhosi signed all of Ranga Chivaviro, Pule Mmodi, Tebogo Potsane, Jasond Gonzalez and Mduduzi Mdantsane in this transfer window to boost their firepower. They made the big calls to offload Caleb-Bonfils Bimenyimana, Kgaogelo Sekgota and Khama Billiat and to freshen up the front-line. Bimenyimana was the top goalscorer in the league last season whilst Sekgota and Billiat were amongst the highest assist providers, albeit with paltry three goals created each. Yet, with a third of the league campaign over, Chiefs have scored just nine goals in ten matches with five blanks fired already! Below, we do a dive into the matches played in PSL so far and see if Chiefs are creating lots of clear-cut chances or having lots of shots at goal. Which players are threatening the opposition's goal and which are not showing much intent?
Five blanks already
In just 10 league matches, we've seen Kaizer Chiefs fail to score against all of Chippa United, TS Galaxy, Royal AM, SuperSport United and Cape Town City. Two of those five fixtures without scoring ended 0-0, whilst three were defeats for the Soweto giants. Considering that the side has lost half of their league matches this season, it's clear that they are not good at coming back from behind. If they leak the first goal, they tend to lose. Only once this campaign have they come back from behind to take any points – the 2-1 home win against Sekhukhune United was an encounter in which they trailed 1-0.
Without doubt, Chiefs are lacking the firepower to break open deep defences. If their opponents sit back, they have a very good chance of leaving with either a goalless draw or with three points and a clean sheet if they score first against the Glamour Boys. As highlighted in last week's feature, there are around a dozen significant problem areas right now for Cavin Johnson to address, but the biggest is the simple inability to put the ball into the back of the net!
In the 2021/22 season, the Naturena- based outfit failed to score in 10 of their 30 games. Last time around under Arthur Zwane, they failed to score in 11 league matches. For reference, Mamelodi Sundowns had just eight encounters across those two seasons in total without scoring and they've netted in every league match so far this season! That is the standard that Chiefs need to aspire to. No wonder Johnson said his only mandate from the board was to "play the Chiefs way and the results will come. There are no expectations."
Are Chiefs creating clear chances?
If you listened to Zwane's interviews last season, he constantly bemoaned the fact that his side were creating gilt-edged opportunities, but that his side were lacking ruthlessness to finish those chances. The stats didn't really back that up, and a lot of the Expected Goals total produced by the Glamour Boys came from penalties! They also played against 10 men on a consistent basis, so that would have helped to inflate their numbers.
The true story came when facing 11 men and we saw that the Soweto giants could barely open up opponents. If we look at this season, the side has struggled to turn possession into shots, and shots into clear-cut opportunities. Pule Mmodi (three goals), Ashley Du Preez (one goal) and Christian Saile (one goal) are the only forwards or attacking midfielders to score in the 10 league games thus far this season. The two frontline, focal point strikers in Ranga Chivaviro and Jasond Gonzalez are yet to register a goal, albeit they've not played a great number of minutes in the league up to this point. Prior to the Golden Arrows defeat – where we are still waiting for the detailed stats – Amakhosi had 113 shots across nine league encounters. That translates to a very decent average of 12.5 efforts per match. There are two big problems with that number though! Firstly, despite 113 efforts, only 26 of those have hit the target.
Chiefs are therefore averaging fewer than three shots on target per game. If we look at how many clear-cut chances are being created – and these are usually opportunities with an Expected Goals value of 0.20 xG, not one-yard sitters – the 10 big chances created is a very poor number in nine matches. You should be able to create a couple of 'big chances' per match and have some games where you have five or six presentable chances!
The shot count is improving at least
If we compare the first five games of this season to the fixtures from round six to round nine, we can see that Chiefs are beginning to take more shots at goal. They were averaging nine shots per game in the first five encounters. In the last four matches, excluding the Arrows setback, they had 68 efforts on goal, an average of 17 – nearly double what they were producing before. Below you can see the statistics in full:
There are two big caveats to this information. Firstly, the shooting accuracy in the opening five fixtures was 27%, but it's dropped to around 20% since then. They may be having a lot more efforts, but they're still not testing goalkeepers nearly enough. Whilst someone like Darren Keet won Man of the Match against Chiefs, he only had to make a couple of top saves. Ten of the Naturena-based side's 18 shots against Cape Town City were outside the box.
Are the front three/four hurting opponents?
The second big caveat to the above data is the identity of the players getting shots away. Realistically, you don't want the deeper midfielders to be having lots of hopeful pot-shots at goal. You want your strikers, wingers and number 10 to be the ones getting into scoring positions. Let's take a deeper look at that… Against Chippa United, the Soweto giants' front four had eight of their 10 shots. However, only three efforts hit the target and the one big chance was missed by Mduduzi Shabalala. As we highlighted in Issue 1328, Shabalala has many strengths, but his finishing needs lots of work. He only scored one goal in his final 21 appearances of last season. In the Sundowns defeat, a game where the Brazilians scored twice and missed four 'big chances',
Amakhosi managed just one shot on target and famously didn't have a single effort in the first half. In the 1-0 loss at TS Galaxy, they had just two shots on target. Saile had two off the bench and starters Mmodi and Mdantsane each managed just a single shot on target between them from two attempts. That's better than Chivaviro and Potsane, who started the game and came off without getting a shot away at all. We can go through every match and see that Amakhosi are simply not getting their front players to shoot enough.
Mmodi is able to work opportunities and scored twice against AmaZulu FC and once against Stellenbosch FC. He also had a big chance saved by Keet in the Cape Town City defeat. However, no regular starters besides Mmodi and Du Preez look to strike at goal with regularity. The away loss to a vengeful Gavin Hunt SuperSport United team saw the worst of the Glamour Boys. They conceded in the second minute and then spent the match huffing and puffing. They had 13 shots at goal but only forced Ricardo Goss into one solitary save. Over and over again, they got into good positions, but it didn't translate into forcing an equaliser despite having nine of their 13 shots inside the box!
Saile wasted, Potsane not a threat
Whilst Mmodi is doing a good job on the left wing, the right flank hasn't produced enough. Potsane is yet to score and has only even attempted two shots in five league outings. For a player with his pace, he rarely uses that acceleration to threaten behind the last line or by arriving late into scoring positions. Meanwhile, Saile is being wasted. When used on the right wing, he is aggressive and dynamic and very willing to shoot. In around 520 minutes, he has had 11 shots and scored against Stellies.
Against Arrows last Saturday, he was totally ineffective as a number nine with his back to goal! The return of Keagan Dolly could limit Saile's minutes in his best position even more. Meanwhile, Du Preez remains the most consistently dangerous attacker. His relentless running has led to 15 shots attempted, but he has only scored one goal, a close-range finish from Potsane's cross against Downs.
Against Royal AM, he missed two clear-cut chances as the side could only draw 0-0 despite having 18 shots in the 90 minutes. In the case of the speed merchant, he gets chances but doesn't usually finish them off.
Two target men were gambles
Without doubt, Chiefs gambled in the transfer market in the profile of target men they acquired. Jasond Gonzalez has size and mobility, but he has lacked much subtlety so far and was even shunted wide in one match against Sundowns. He has managed to fire off three shots in two PSL outings and he clearly puts his big frame about quite effectively. It would have made more sense to start him against Abafana Bes'thende or to keep faith with Chivaviro after a promising outing against Usuthu.
Speaking of the former Marumo Gallants striker… at 30 years old, he has only had one effective season in the topflight of the local game. His goalscoring numbers last term were the first occasion he put the ball into the back of the net regularly in the DStv Premiership and it's a big ask to go from being largely an NFD journeyman to solving the scoring problems of the country's most-supported team.
It remains to be seen what goal tallies the duo will produce by the end of the league season, but don't be surprised if neither players scored more than two or three goals in the DStv Premiership.
Not a good start for Cavin
Cavin Johnson picked a bizarrely narrow 4-3-2-1 shape in the Arrows defeat with Dolly and Shabalala as inside forwards and the width being provided by the fullbacks. Not only did Saile struggle as a lone forward, but the changes were negative and ineffective – particularly George Matlou replacing Saile, fullback Dillan Solomons coming on as a winger and Gonzalez only being given five minutes, despite Chiefs pumping long balls forward constantly to Saile!
Whilst the playing surface was poor, you expected a bit more creativity from the Soweto giants or at least they could have spammed crosses towards Gonzalez or had Edson Castillo flood the box to attack deliveries, considering his aerial prowess. It was largely a tepid, clueless display and much of the blame has to be shouldered by the caretaker coach for selecting a narrow formation for Golden Arrows to nullify.
Summary: Johnson has work to do
This brief study shows what we probably already know: Chiefs lack a ruthless finisher and have also been lacking enough creativity in the absence of Dolly. To have scored in only five of 10 league fixtures is simply not acceptable. And, in Saturday's 2-1 defeat away to Arrows, the only goal the side scored came from a lateral freekick and left back Sifiso Hlanti was a long way offside, so the goal should not have counted! Most of the work on the training ground has to be focused on building chemistry between a more regular front three or front four, having the number eights join the attack, and cutting out schoolboy errors at the back. The biggest issue is the quality of attacking combination play, where you hardly see effective rotations, link-up play, underlaps/overlaps or overloads. Until we see clear attacking tactics, the Naturena-based team will continue to fire off desperate shots and struggle to score in more than 50% of their matches.
The main attacking issues in terms of priority reads like a laundry list of problems. Among them is to use Saile on the right, get Dolly a little deeper to provide through balls and to play Du Preez down the middle versus high lines but wide against low blocks. They need to get Potsane to arrive in scoring positions (for perhaps the first time in his career at 30), use Gonzalez or Chivaviro as the nine when Du Preez is out, and lastly, to sometimes play with one of the three genuine number 10s (Mdantsane, Nkosingiphile Ngcobo or Shabalala) instead of always using three of Yusuf Maart, Sibongiseni Mthethwa, Matlou and Castillo at the same time in a negative central midfield trio.
