On Saturday, Kaizer Chiefs and Orlando Pirates will face off in the Nedbank Cup semi-final in the third showpiece of the season. Arthur Zwane's men are famously on a drought on seven years since securing the 2014/15 league title on 22 April 2015. They've also somewhat remarkably won five successive derbies against the Buccaneers, all of them by a single goal. No matter what the form guide tells us, Amakhosi always seem to nick a narrow win. It could also be said that Pirates have heavily contributed to their own downfall in recent defeats. So often, they have clutched defeat from the hands of victory (or from the hands of a stalemate) by scoring own goals, having players red-carded or even allowing Yusuf Maart to score from 57 yards in the first "El Kasico" of this season. Jose Riveiro's side is enjoying a strong league campaign and they're in with a great chance of finishing second and earning a place in next season's CAF Champions League, while Chiefs' loss to Swallows FC has the club's fan base in panic mode. Bucs could take a step towards completing a domestic cup double in this match, whilst Chiefs have a chance to reach a first final since 2019's defeat to TS Galaxy under Ernst Middendorp. In this big-match preview, Soccer Laduma looks at the key individual battles, does a stats comparison of the two teams and asks whether the difference could be the standard of officiating! There's no place to hide or settling for a draw, as one of the two giants will experience Nedbank Cup heartbreak on Saturday.
Big Midweek Spanner
For the last Soweto Derby, both sides had a full week to prepare. It was hoped that the extra time on the training ground would lead to an exciting game, but we instead saw no goals for 88 minutes until Olisa Ndah's own goal. Coming into this one, both sides have midweek commitments with an entire round of DStv Premiership action to enjoy – a real spanner in the works with this semi-final on the horizon. Kaizer Chiefs hosted Swallows FC on Monday night in a different Soweto derby, meaning they will have four days to recover and prepare for this match. Orlando Pirates played on Sunday against TS Galaxy and have to play Royal AM at home on Wednesday, so they will have just Thursday for a recovery day and Friday as a training day! That could already mean that Amakhosi have an advantage before this match even kicks off. This edge could be enhanced if the match goes to extra time! Another factor is whether the two sides will be fully focused on their midweek commitments. The players will want to avoid tiring themselves out too much whilst also avoiding injuries. Chiefs went into their Thursday fixture against Chippa United last week with six players on three yellow cards. Brandon Petersen was the only one to see a caution and sat out the Swallows match, handing Itumeleng Khune a first start in 101 calendar days. None of the other five 'at-risk' players were in the starting XI against both the Chilli Boys and the Dube Birds: Zitha Kwinika, Bonfils-Caleb Bimenyimana, Keagan Dolly, Kgaogelo Sekgota and Dillan Solomons (although the latter two came on as substitutes on Monday). For the Buccaneers, there were also five players at suspension risk going into their win at TS Galaxy. Both Miguel Timm and Kabelo Dlamini received their fourth cautions and will miss the midweek Royal AM match. Bandile Shandu, Deon Hotto and Tapelo Xoki all came through unscathed, but the big question is whether Jose Riveiro will risk starting them on Wednesday with the threat of missing such a crucial cup semi-final.
Can Zwane Find A Smart Chess Move?
Without doubt, Amakhosi have had some luck in their recent derby wins. They scored a wonder goal from some iffy Siyabonga Mpontshane goalkeeping – as the ball travelled over 50 yards whilst he began 18 yards from his goal-line – and then a freak own goal by Ndah in the last meeting. However, Zwane has also done some very smart stuff tactically to tilt the balance. Without any grand change of formation or general strategy, he made clear and clever tweaks to give his side a better chance. In the first meeting, no one expected Nkosingiphile Ngcobo to start, but "10111" spotted a weakness in that area with Timm suspended, as he revealed post-match, "We knew Timm was out and that's why we brought in Mshini to operate behind them, so that means they don't have that strength in the middle. So, we packed the midfield." In the second meeting, there were again subtle but crucial changes. He went with Kwinika at right back for his defensive solidity, had Sithebe man-mark Thembinkosi Lorch in certain stages, and put Dolly on the left to keep Saleng quiet. Zwane also had the instinct to play Ashley Du Preez as a central striker having almost always been on the flanks in the weeks leading up that match. The question is whether he will have another ace up his sleeve in order to make it six derby victories on the spin. Could he make a surprise selection in the midfield like Samkelo Zwane or even Cole Alexander? He could possibly recall Kwinika from a few weeks on the bench or even hand Khune his first action in an official Soweto Derby in almost five years to help bypass the pressing of Pirates, although the veteran didn't cover himself in glory by conceding twice in the Swallows loss.
Notable Derby Duels
Timm v Sithebe
For this season's first derby in October, Timm was out suspended for Pirates. His absence led to a change of formation to a 4-4-2 by Riveiro, whilst Arthur Zwane directly targeted the space left by the former Marumo Gallants man's ban by selecting Nkosingiphile Ngcobo. Thankfully, Bucs will have their midfield controller for this match because of his suspension in midweek. He will be fully fresh and keen to impress after a lacklustre performance in his Soweto Derby debut in February. Timm's form of late has been good and against Cape Town City, for example, he completed 35 of his 39 passes, made four ball recoveries and attempted five tackles. Alongside Thabang Monare in central midfield, he brings calm and control to proceedings and gives a platform for the front four to wreak havoc with more freedom to drift around. As Zwane said about the midfielder in October: "Timm has given Pirates very good balance in the middle because he can fight for the ball and he can play." For the Glamour Boys, they will need to come up with a plan that allows them to press Monare and Timm. If Zwane uses Siyethemba Sithebe and Yusuf Maart as two deeper midfielders, it will be very difficult for someone like Mduduzi to try tp stop the Pirates duo from dominating proceedings. A better set-up is one where Sithebe can use his incredibly energy to the full – as a number eight. Whether it's Maart in the holding role or Samkelo Zwane comes into the XI to make it three genuine midfielders Sithebe has to be given the license to get in the face of Timm and look to run off him. For all the latter's passing quality, the Bucs man is not particularly quick. Sithebe attempted seven tackles in each of the two recent wins against Stellenbosch and Royal AM and also twice recovered the ball in the opposition half in each match. Alongside him, Maart is also very strong in his defensive actions – his 119 tackle attempts and 46 ball recoveries in the opposition half are both near top of the PSL leaderboards.
Saleng v Hlanti
As with the other two derbies this season, it is impossible to look past this as a key battle once again. Monnapule Saleng is having a brilliant season with 14 goals to his name. He is just one goal off Peter Shalulile in the race for the DStv Premiership Golden Boot and all of this has come in under 2,000 minutes of pitch time. Looking back, it's amazing to think that he was barely given a kick in the first nine fixtures of the season! The thing is, Saleng is an all-round threat. He largely scores his goals from within the box and doesn't rely on long-range shots. He is able to drift between the lines and cause overloads with Bucs often having three or four players in tight spaces to link up. He is far from a one-trick pony who gets chalk on his boots on the touchline for 90 minutes. Sifiso Hlanti has had a recent breather against Sekhukhune United due to suspension and he will have to lean on all his experience to deal with a player who is quicker than him. One of the good things is that Paseka Mako is expected to play as a conservative right back behind Saleng, so he won't often be double-teamed. What Pirates will do is try to pull Hlanti narrow for switches to Saleng or they will play in triangles in front of the Chiefs box, allowing quick interplay and easier counter-pressing. In the last derby, Amakhosi's shape made it difficult for Saleng to get many touches of the ball as Dolly screened passes well. Hlanti will be hoping for a similar set-up to protect him as the game could be won and lost in this individual tussle.
Ngezana v Dzvukamanja
The third key battle may be a surprising one. Rewind a few months and Siyabonga Ngezana was being booed by his own supporters, made big mistakes in a 4-0 loss to Mamelodi Sundowns and subsequently found himself benched for weeks at a time. Meanwhile, Bucs had played 20 matches this season by the 13th of January, yet Terrence Dzvukamanja had featured in precisely one of those and for just 23 minutes. He looked set to leave to link up with former mentor Gavin Hunt at Super- Sport United before a remarkable remontada – a Spanish word meaning 'comeback', which has entered football jargon. In almost all of his minutes, the Zimbabwean has played as a false nine. He can be seen dropping to link up play, moving wide to create overloads or doing smart defensive work on the number six of the opposition. When he vacates that centre-forward space, it allows room for Saleng to arrive in goalscoring positions. It causes an absolute headache for defenders, who don't know whether to follow Dzvukamanja or whether to stay in their position with no one to mark. Ngezana is a highly aggressive duel master, who wins 71% of his defensive challenges. He likes to get into physical battles, but against a false nine, he is in a battle with a Ghost, excuse the pun. Whilst Dzvukamanja is elusive to mark, he has scored six headed goals this season by arriving into scoring positions or getting a run on his markers. Added to that, when he has scored in his PSL career, he has been on the winning side 100% of the time. This battle will be absolutely crucial to the outcome of this tie.
A fun Derby Debate: Combined XI on current form
As we've seen so many times, team form is not a strong indicator of who will win this match. In fact, there are even times when in-form players drop poor performances in the Soweto Derby and other players regain form with all the eyes and media attention afforded this match. Nevertheless, when two big sides face off, it is customary for media outlets to put together a "combined XI' to spark talking points and a debate amongst the fans. In goal, both Sipho Chaine and Petersen have had a chance to step out of the shadows in recent months. Having been bit-part players at both their current and some of their previous clubs, they've both had a run in the team of late. It's not an easy call to decide which one is in better form going into this clash. Chaine has six clean sheets in 16 starts this season, whilst Petersen has nine shutouts in 19 outings. It's a close call, but the Chiefs man probably just edges it.
At the back, the Naturena-based outfit have chopped and changed at right back of late, whilst Mako has played a number of successive matches with strong performances. He edges out the likes of Reeve Frosler and Solomons. At centre-back, Nkosinathi Sibisi was great against TS Galaxy and is a certainty in this side. Sandile Mthethwa and Xoki have both done well when called upon, but Ngezana takes the second spot. He has turned his season around and has made fewer errors than Edmilson Dove. Left back is very close but despite his red card against Chiefs in the last derby, Innocent Maela has been strong of late, whilst Hlanti has seen some calls from the fans for a new left back to be found for next season. In midfield, Monare is a certain pick. Whenever fit, he has played really well this season despite his advancing years and has fully justified Pirates renewing his deal belatedly at the start of the campaign. It's a tougher choice alongside him: Timm has been playing well, Maart is not getting the credit he deserves and Sithebe has an extra lung, such is his work-rate. Although he could be doing better – there is more to come – Maart gets the nod. In attack, we have immediately put Saleng and Du Preez. They are two of the PSL's most in-form players right now and carrying a huge burden for their teams in attack. Alongside them, Dzvukamanja has really excelled as a false nine and brings an aerial threat like few others. The final spot is a tougher one. Maybe a few weeks back, Christian Saile may have gotten the nod, but Kabelo Dlamini has eclipsed him. Lorch has also looked great, but injuries mean he narrowly misses out! There you have it, six Orlando Pirates players and five from Kaizer Chiefs.
Current combined XI: Petersen – Mako, Ngezana, Sibisi, Maela – Monare, Maart; Saleng, Dzvukamanja, Dlamini; Du Preez.
STATS COMPARISON
PSL STATS 2022/23 SEASON
*Accurate up until 26 April 2023
KAIZER ORLANDO
CHIEFS PIRATES
14.12 Shots Per Game 11.39
32% Shooting Accuracy 36%
1.65 Expected Goals Per Game 1.28
51% Average Possession 55%
1.08 Expected Goals Conceded 0.75
44.8 Final Third Entries 41.6
31 Passes Per Shot Ratio 43.3
If we take a look at some basic stats for these two teams, it gives an indication of their style of play and which side is allowing/creating more chances within matches. Firstly, Chiefs are averaging quite a few more shots per match than Pirates and are also producing more Expected Goals – a measure of how many goals a team should score based on the shots they create. Where Bucs are better is in their shooting accuracy, and the league scoring charts back that up. They have scored 34 goals to 31 netted by their archrivals. In essence, the Houghton- based outfit don't create as much, but they are far more ruthless. Defensively, we can also see a stark difference. Pirates only allow opponents just 0.75 Expected Goals per game, whilst Chiefs allow 1.08 xG on average. The goals conceded column, however, shows Bucs with 19 goals conceded and Chiefs with 29 leaked – a huge difference. In terms of directness, Riveiro's men tend to have a lot more of the ball in matches (4% more on average than Amakhosi) and they make a lot more passes. Yet, it's Chiefs with more shots. Zwane's side need just 31 passes to register a shot, a big difference to the 43.3 passes needed by Pirates. Perhaps the key difference is that Chiefs have the in-form Du Preez to hit with early passes over the opposition defence. When you have pace like that up front, you need to get the ball forward early and often to get him running behind. In this match, whilst there are key battles, the former Stellenbosch FC man could be the number one key individual because the Glamour Boys are currently relying on him a lot, whereas the Buccaneers are spreading the load more evenly and have numerous strikers on the bench to call upon when needed.
A Game Of Fine Margins With Lost At Stake
Almost without doubt, this will be a close match. It is unlikely we will see either team win by a two-or three-goal margin and we could even require extra time and penalties. We have seen recent derbies partly decided by refereeing errors – a foul by Khama Billiat ignored in the lead-up to Yusuf Maart's goal and Christian Saile not being red-carded in the February meeting for a bad tackle. We have a number of top players who are doubtful with injuries, including perhaps the most creative players from Bucs, Lorch. Dolly is definitely out. With that said, it could mean starts for Hotto and maybe even Sekgota (no starts in 19 matches) and that would make it more about the wingers and one-versus actions. With this preview coming before Pirates' midweek match, a lot can change. There can be a crucial injury or suspension or an individual putting their hand up and making themselves a shock starter on Saturday – you could imagine that applies to players like Njabulo Ngcobo, who started and should have done better for Swallows' opening goal on Monday, Mthethwa or Makhehlene Makhaula. We have seen that Chiefs have come into four of the last five derbies in poorer form than Pirates and managed to win anyway. Will the trend continue? We have Ashley Du Preez – so often highlighted in these previews – in a red-hot streak and Saleng, Dzvukamanja and others also playing close to the peak of their powers. Prior to their midweek match, Riveiro had overseen six consecutive league wins, equalling coaches like Roy Barreto, Ruud Krol and Josef Zinnbauer in doing so. That will mean nothing at 15h00 on Saturday at the Calabash. If there is any team that can beat themselves, it's Pirates! Even before the late freak goals this season, we had a derby decided by a very late penalty after Ndah fouled Billiat. Ezika Magebhula need to avoid defensive howlers and, as mentioned last week, they have to keep 11 players on the pitch because Chiefs haven't been doing that well without the assistance of an opposition red card this season. Amakhosi may be the fresher side and the more desperate – their trophy cabinet is gathering dust, they've pretty much lost out on second spot bar a miracle, and now is the perfect time to usher in a new era by winning silverware under the increasingly under pressure Zwane.
